Debate contribution: Constitutional Change
Debate contribution by Mr Matthew O'Toole on .
- MLA
- Mr Matthew O'Toole
- Party at the time
- Social Democratic and Labour Party
- Date
- 18 May 2026
- Type
- Debate contribution
- Business
- Opposition Business
- Heading
- Constitutional Change
- Assembly identifier
- Official Report component 5547984
Read the official Assembly record
Text
I beg to move
It is important that, as the official Opposition, we acknowledge that the motion does not completely relate to the business of the Northern Ireland Executive. Others will probably say that it does not relate to the day-to-day business of the Northern Ireland Executive. I will throw that back across the Chamber, however, because I am tempted to say that, were the Northern Ireland Executive more functional and bringing more business before the Assembly, we might be debating different things. As a constructive Opposition, our job has consistently been to confront the Assembly and, in a sense, air issues concerning the consequences of decisions that are made and of those that are not made. The local government elections in Britain that took place 10 days ago were significant, if not historic. I wish that the results, in England at least, had been different, because they demonstrated the rise of a dark and destructive force: Nigel Farage and Reform UK.
We already knew that Farage and his movement were a coming force in British politics, particularly English politics, but not exclusively so. We are increasingly learning that his form of authoritarian populism is funded by offshore billionaires with shady connections, to put it mildly. We already knew that the politics of Farage, who, in many ways, was the intellectual force behind the Brexit movement, were a growing force in Britain. That was illustrated starkly on Thursday a week ago. That has consequences, including for all of us. We hear constantly in the Chamber from Ministers and MLAs from all parties that decisions that are made in Britain, specifically in Whitehall and Westminster, have an impact here. We are consistently told that in relation to, of course, the Budget, and the limitations of the financial settlement. We are told the same about the most routine business, whether that is getting agreement to introduce legislation, or getting clarity on whether a certain piece of law applies to the North. Decisions that are made on the other island have huge consequences here. In 2016, English voters voted to leave the European Union. If there were a general election tomorrow, the most likely next British Prime Minister, if current polls are correct, would be Nigel Farage. That decision by English voters would have a seismic consequence for the public in Northern Ireland. I think that it is fair to say that, if Nigel Farage were standing for election here, it is unlikely that he would be elected. I would be interested to hear from some of the unionist politicians opposite about whether they would like Mr Farage to stand here. Perhaps they would like his endorsement. I know that there is a little bit of a difference of opinion in that regard. Perhaps that will be flushed out during the course of today's debate. Mr Buckley is smirking pleasantly; perhaps he has something to say about that. I know that he was very pleased about some of the election results on Thursday a week ago. Those election results are a stark illustration of something that has been clear since time immemorial: we have little to no control over decisions that are made in Britain, whether you are a nationalist in favour of a united Ireland, a unionist who favours the continued Union with Britain, or somebody who does not take a position, whether agnostic or just completely disinterested, which is entirely legitimate. It is clear that, in 2016, we voted to remain in the European Union. We were dragged out against our will by votes on the other island. I am glad that we have a set of protections that exist specifically for this island, but that is far short of what I want and my party wants, which is full EU membership — back in Europe — for the people of this region, with all the opportunities and benefits of that vision. Our party is shamelessly and proudly the most pro-European in the Chamber. We cannot kid ourselves that we have the ability to control who the next British Prime Minister is, whether that is the leader of the Labour Party — we are observers of the fascinating if chaotic process that is unfolding at the minute in that respect — or someone else after a general election. As I said, the current most likely next Prime Minister is Nigel Farage. I will be clear on behalf of myself and my party, but also on behalf of my kids and everybody who belongs to me: I do not want to live in a country that is run by Nigel Farage. That is not really to do with the colour of my passport, whether I identify as Irish — obviously, I do — or British, or whatever I think about a whole range of other issues; I simply do not want to live in a country that is governed by that charlatan. I really do not. People here of all backgrounds, including many in my constituency of South Belfast who are certainly not convinced, dyed-in-the-wool nationalists — although many of them have been coming to my office in increasing numbers to have their Irish passport form signed — do not want to live in a country run by Nigel Farage, either; they want, in many cases, the possibility, hope and opportunity of rejoining the European Union. We have put our motion down today to, as we have done in the past, confront the Assembly respectfully with a simple but ultimately unavoidable choice. If you live in this region — in Northern Ireland — and want not a future governed by Nigel Farage, the dark authoritarian forces that he represents or the shady people who fund him but a new future back inside the European Union, the only way in which to decisively make that choice is to opt for a new Ireland, back inside Europe. Let me be clear: that process is going to take years. It is not going to happen today or tomorrow. I and my party are sceptical about the worth of simply naming dates for a border poll, rather than practically preparing, persuading and campaigning for change. However, that question and that choice is one that more and more people are engaging with. If we do not want to live in a country either governed by Farage or dictated to by the forces that surround Farage, we will have to make that choice at some point. It is not simply a choice between two options to get back inside the European Union. It might come up in today's debate that there has been some chatter about the UK potentially rejoining the European Union. As people will know because I have talked about it many times in this Chamber, I was previously a UK civil servant, and I tried to keep the UK in the European Union. I was not successful in that effort, as others were not. I think that it remains vanishingly unlikely that, in any meaningful horizon, the UK will rejoin the European Union, although I would like it to. If there were a referendum, I would campaign for the UK and Northern Ireland to rejoin. However, here is the thing: even if there were a referendum on the UK rejoining the European Union, Northern Ireland could vote remain by 99% to 1% and our votes would be wiped out by English voters, if they decided to vote to remain outside the EU. We in this place do not have equal opportunity options on our future. We only have one decisive way of taking our future into our hands and choosing a European future, and that is via a new Ireland. There are, of course, other practical challenges. Even were the UK to have a successful rejoin referendum — as I said, I would like that to happen, but I think that it is unlikely — there would have to be a formal accession process. There would have to be a negotiation, which would take years — perhaps more than a decade. Many countries have been formal accession countries and, after a very long time, still have not joined the European Union. I do not want that; I want a new Ireland back inside the European Union. It would be much quicker and more straightforward, and I think that many more people are engaging with that possibility. Of course, to be clear, as was established through the Brexit negotiation process, should a majority of people in this region — Northern Ireland — vote for a new Ireland, we would automatically rejoin the European Union. We would accede to being an existing EU member state. We would have automatic right of re-entry, with all the possibilities that that entails. I respect and acknowledge the fact that many Members in the Chamber, particularly those from unionist parties, do not want that future and that it is not one that they seek. However, I will say this: many people in Northern Ireland, from a whole range of backgrounds, do want that future. They do not necessarily want it today, tomorrow or next week, but they want to talk about it for the future of their kids and grandkids. They see dark, authoritarian forces on the rise in the world, and they want a future based on interdependence, cooperation, human rights, decent environmental standards and decent labour standards. They see that future in Europe through working together. They see, through the European context, the potential for respect of our multiple identities on this island, and they want to build that future. I sincerely hope that the rise of Nigel Farage is held off in Britain. My party and I will do anything that we can to stop that, but let us be clear: we in Northern Ireland have only one way of genuinely and decisively choosing a new future, not today and not tomorrow but by planning for a new Ireland inside the European Union. It is a hopeful vision, and I hope —.
I have literally about 20 seconds left, but yes.
1,683 words. Text as published by the Northern Ireland Assembly.
Assessment
Jev’s structured answers met the documented threshold for “not flagged”.
- Overall probability that the activity is being used to promote, exploit or escalate an identity-based controversy: 0.39 (flagging needs at least 0.70; at or below 0.30 is not flagged).
- None of the five culture-war criteria was met (each was below 0.60).
- No identity-based framing was identified (0.66).
- Subject area: Constitutional question, Brexit, the Windsor Framework and sovereignty.
- The overall probability was low and the text did not adopt any identity-based framing.
This is an AI-generated assessment of the text, made against published criteria. It is not a finding of fact about the MLA or their intentions. The Assembly record itself is the fact.
Jev’s structured answers
| Question | Probability | Met? |
|---|---|---|
| Identity framing | 0.45 | No |
| Sectarian or communal antagonism | 0.10 | No |
| Cultural grievance politics | 0.03 | No |
| Dog-whistle messaging | 0.36 | No |
| Controversy escalation | 0.22 | No |
| Legitimate policy scrutiny | 0.19 | No |
| Overall judgement | 0.39 | Between thresholds |
| Option | Probability |
|---|---|
| No identity-based framing (chosen) | 0.66 |
| Reports or questions it | 0.01 |
| Criticises or condemns it | 0.13 |
| Adopts it | 0.20 |
| Subject | Probability |
|---|---|
| Constitutional question, Brexit, the Windsor Framework and sovereignty | 0.99 |
| Another identity-related subject | 0.01 |
| No identity-related subject | 0.00 |
| Flags, emblems, symbols, names and memorials | 0.00 |
| Parades, bonfires and commemorations | 0.00 |
Assessed 21 October 2026 at 15:32 UTC by jev-1.13.0 (requested as typesafe/jev) under rubric 2026.10-r9, methodology 1.9.
Disagree with this assessment?
Classifications can be challenged. A person reads every challenge, and any change is recorded publicly above with its reason.