Debate contribution: Rates (Regional Rates) Order (Northern Ireland) 2026

Debate contribution by Dr Steve Aiken OBE on 10 March 2026.

MLA

Dr Steve Aiken OBE

Party at the time

Ulster Unionist Party

Date

10 March 2026

Type

Debate contribution

Business

Executive Committee Business

Heading

Rates (Regional Rates) Order (Northern Ireland) 2026

Assembly identifier

Official Report component 5436697

Read the official Assembly record

Text

I thank the Minister for his remarks, and I thank the other members of the Finance Committee who have spoken so far. We expect to raise about £900 million as a result of the rates rise. Members will be aware from evidence that we have received in the Finance Committee that, over the next three-year period, we can expect a growing deficit, which could be as large as £1·2 billion by the end of year 3. An open-book process is ongoing. If we get any feedback from the Treasury when it looks at the amount required to balance the books and when it compares our rateable system — our domestic and non-domestic rates — with what happens in the rest of the United Kingdom, it will be interesting to see what it does. Minister, there is a lot of concern about the Reval process. We know, from our experience over many years, that LPS is assiduous in conducting its duties. However, on this occasion, there seems to have been a breakdown between LPS and the Department, and discussions between them went askew. I and many Committee members found the lack of communication strange. People should have realised the real concern in the hospitality industry. When was that signalled to the Minister? If the concern was signalled to the Minister early, why was that proposal allowed to get to the position that it did? Our experience has always been that LPS is absolutely assiduous in what it does and in its calculations. It is one of the few agencies in the Northern Ireland Civil Service that can be an exemplar. Therefore, this is a real concern that we would like to have addressed, and I would like to hear the Minister talk about it. Despite the rollover of the overspend and the extra Barnett money, we will be probably looking at a deficit of £1 billion to £1·25 billion at the three-year point. We cannot continue to expect money to be found down the back of the sofa or to get more Barnett consequentials to fill the gap. That will fill part of it. After the blip from what is going on in Iran and the Middle East, inflation is likely to come down again, but the question is this: how much will we use rates as a mechanism to fill the hole? We cannot keep expecting money to descend in our general direction and hope for the best, as we have in the past. We are increasing rates by 5% now. Given the inflation rate that we expect over the next couple of years, the general forecast is that we will have to look at substantially increasing rates to fill the gap. Minister, filling that gap will be a significant challenge for whomever replaces you as Finance Minister in the next term. As the Chair of the Committee pointed out, the only revenue-raising mechanism that we seem to have is rates. Unless we look seriously at other revenue-raising mechanisms or at the opposite — significantly cutting public expenditure and reducing the cost of government — or at both, we will not be in a position to manage the books. Frankly, we cannot keep blaming the Brits for not giving us enough money. We are doing an open-book exercise, and, I am afraid, the answer that will probably come back is not only that we are getting enough money but that we are absolutely appalling at spending it.

We are not particularly good at government. Given some of the issues that we have had to deal with, such as the cost of the A5 rising to close to £200 million without a square metre of tarmac having been laid, no one can seriously say that we are very good at doing what is required.

The Ulster Unionist Party will support the rates order. We have made our comments on in the House and in the Finance Committee. If he would be so kind, I would like the Minister to address the issues that I have raised in his winding-up speech.

679 words. Text as published by the Northern Ireland Assembly.

Assessment

Not flagged

Jev’s structured answers

Assessed 21 October 2026 at 15:12 UTC by jev-1.13.0 (requested as typesafe/jev) under rubric 2026.10-r9, methodology 1.9.

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