Member's statement: Donald Trump: Oil Prices and DUP Engagement
Member's statement by Mr Matthew O'Toole on .
- MLA
- Mr Matthew O'Toole
- Party at the time
- Social Democratic and Labour Party
- Date
- 23 March 2026
- Type
- Member's statement
- Business
- Members' Statements
- Heading
- Donald Trump: Oil Prices and DUP Engagement
- Assembly identifier
- Official Report component 5465252
Read the official Assembly record
Text
In the past couple of hours, the price of Brent crude — the oil price that determines how nearly two thirds of the public in Northern Ireland heat their home — fell after the lunatic Donald Trump indicated that he had had "productive" conversations with Iran, which he began bombarding three weeks ago. Then, not long after that, the Iranian regime said that that was not the case. It said that Trump had backed down, which, as we know, he has done in the past, and that there had been no such negotiations. Now, as we speak, we are seeing the price of oil rocket, which will hit two thirds of our constituents, not only those in rural areas but those in my constituency and your constituency, Madam Principal Deputy Speaker, in Belfast. Members of the House were in the US over the past week. We have just heard from the deputy First Minister, who lauded the engagement that she had there, and from Mr Buckley — not the only dramatically gifted Buckley seeking attention in North America last week — who was over in Washington getting photo ops. We heard from them how pleased and delighted they were with their engagement with the Trump Government. Our constituents are paying the price for Trump's insanity. We are seeing that today. By the way, while people are struggling to heat their home, our Communities Minister flew thousands of miles across the world for, by my count, at least his third visit to America to talk about the 250th anniversary of the founding of America, the declaration of a republic and the role that the Scots Irish had in that. Let me say this to those who are celebrating, plámásing and praising Donald Trump and his Government: those Ulster Scots and Scots Irish would have had nothing to do with the lunatic — the crook — that is Donald Trump. They believed in a republic that was free from the Crown but with its citizens bound under law. People such as Ulysses S Grant did not believe in a vain emperor — a deluded fool such as Donald Trump. Mr Buckley is laughing. His constituents in Upper Bann are paying the price for Trump's madness and a war — an insane bombardment of Iran — that the DUP backed. It has nothing to do with people in Iran who want democracy. They are cowering in their homes and being bombarded by the US and Israel. Engaging with Donald Trump is a preposterous act. Some sovereign Governments have to engage with Donald Trump. They have a job to do. They have to engage with him diplomatically. You guys do not. Mr Buckley, you do not need to go over there and flatter him: it is not your job, but you have done it anyway. All the while, your constituents are paying the price of his unacceptable, reckless and meaningless bombardment of Iran, which is forcing up prices, destabilising the world and putting all of us at risk.
504 words. Text as published by the Northern Ireland Assembly.
Assessment
Not flagged on a second assessment, because Jev’s answers did not settle it. The reasons are given below.
- Overall probability that the activity is being used to promote, exploit or escalate an identity-based controversy: 0.48 (flagging needs at least 0.70; at or below 0.30 is not flagged).
- None of the five culture-war criteria was met (each was below 0.60).
- The text adopts the identity-based framing in its own voice (0.56).
- Subject area: Irish language, Ulster-Scots and language policy.
- The answers did not meet either automatic threshold.
This is an AI-generated assessment of the text, made against published criteria. It is not a finding of fact about the MLA or their intentions. The Assembly record itself is the fact.
Second assessment
Jev’s answers did not settle this record, so a second model, claude-opus-5-5, read the same text (without the MLA’s name or party) and gave its reasons on 21 October 2026. How the second assessment works
- Verdict
- Not flagged
- Public interest or divisiveness
- Mainly advances the public interest
Against the published rubric
The statement is mainly a partisan attack on the US President and on local politicians and a minister who engaged with his administration, tied to rising heating oil prices that "will hit two thirds of our constituents". It criticises a party's conduct and stance on the bombardment of Iran rather than attributing hostility to any community, and it does not map that conflict onto communities here. The remark that the Scots Irish believed in "a republic that was free from the Crown" turns a heritage theme back on those celebrating the anniversary. It is a passing rhetorical jab, though, not a grievance about Ulster-Scots culture or an attack on it.
Public interest or divisiveness
The substantive thread is the cost to constituents of oil price rises and whether elected representatives should be courting a foreign government whose actions are driving those prices. The tone is heavily personal and combative, with insults aimed at the President and mockery of a member's trip. That is partisan point-scoring, not identity-based division, and no group or community is portrayed as a threat or as illegitimate.
Jev’s structured answers
| Question | Probability | Met? |
|---|---|---|
| Identity framing | 0.17 | No |
| Sectarian or communal antagonism | 0.13 | No |
| Cultural grievance politics | 0.07 | No |
| Dog-whistle messaging | 0.50 | No |
| Controversy escalation | 0.55 | No |
| Legitimate policy scrutiny | 0.41 | No |
| Overall judgement | 0.48 | Between thresholds |
| Option | Probability |
|---|---|
| No identity-based framing | 0.33 |
| Reports or questions it | 0.00 |
| Criticises or condemns it | 0.11 |
| Adopts it (chosen) | 0.56 |
| Subject | Probability |
|---|---|
| Irish language, Ulster-Scots and language policy | 0.54 |
| Constitutional question, Brexit, the Windsor Framework and sovereignty | 0.18 |
| Another identity-related subject | 0.13 |
| Sectarianism, hate crime and community relations | 0.05 |
| Immigration, asylum, race, ethnicity and Travellers | 0.04 |
Assessed 21 October 2026 at 15:06 UTC by jev-1.13.0 (requested as typesafe/jev) under rubric 2026.10-r9, methodology 1.9.
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