Debate contribution: Economic Trends on the Island of Ireland

Debate contribution by Mr Matthew O'Toole on .

MLA
Mr Matthew O'Toole
Party at the time
Social Democratic and Labour Party
Date
26 January 2026
Type
Debate contribution
Business
Private Members' Business
Heading
Economic Trends on the Island of Ireland
Assembly identifier
Official Report component 5341289

Read the official Assembly record

Text

Not for the first time, I shudder as I listen to the quality of the debate in the Chamber. I want to touch on a few points. We support the motion. It talks about an extremely important thing. The Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) was commissioned by the Shared Island unit to develop a programme of work that modelled the difference between the two economies — they are two economies, but there is also an all-island and all-Ireland economy that I will come on to talk about in more detail — how they interact, the differences in performance and the advantages of greater integration and dynamism on the island. We talk often about ideology: ideology is not the same as having a considered view. I make no apology for the fact that I am genuinely of the view that ending partition, building a new Ireland and Northern Ireland's rejoining the EU via the only plausible means, which is a new Ireland, will be good for our economy. It is wrong to pretend that that is some kind of strange ideology. That view is evidence-based, and increasing numbers of people, not just those from traditionally nationalist backgrounds, are embracing it, which is, perhaps, why Members opposite are somewhat nervous, shall we say, about this debate. I turn to the context of the motion. We support virtually everything in it, but I add this caveat, and I do not do so to be churlish: you would think that the motion was tabled by a Back-Bench party or, indeed, an Opposition party. In fact, it was tabled by a party that has all the economic levers at its disposal in the North, so the matters in the motion are not theoretical. We do not need private Members' motions on the North driving forward the all-island economy via energy, greater fiscal devolution and good jobs; we need Ministers to do that. Earlier on, my South Belfast colleague said that Sinn Féin is living in our cerebral cortex. I sometimes get accused of using $10 words, but that was very nice. I think that the phrase that is sometimes used is "living rent-free". No: we are just doing our job as the Opposition. Sinn Féin has power. You have more seats than us and all the main strategic drivers. You have the First Minister, Finance Minister, Economy Minister and Infrastructure Minister. You have the opportunity to drive the North/South interconnector, the all-island strategic rail review and all-island tourism. Get on and do it. Do not blame us. We will hold you to account, because that is our job. Progress is not happening at the pace at which it needs to happen. We talked about the 'good jobs' Bill earlier, and I talk repeatedly about fiscal devolution, because we have the theoretical agreement of the Finance Minister. Conor Murphy set up the Fiscal Commission six years ago. I welcomed the fact that it was commissioned, but we have not seen a single calorie of energy put into implementing its report. I want to see that. Some of the Members opposite have, in different ways, sought to deflect from and diminish the idea of all-island cooperation, which is, I am afraid, nonsense.

I will take a very quick one.

If you are telling me that your party has more votes and more seats, I am not disputing that; I am telling you to get on and use your power to —.

If Ministers from whatever party, be it Sinn Féin, the DUP or Alliance, hold office, they should get on with doing their job. Do I have an extra minute, Madam Principal Deputy Speaker? I took an intervention.

I am just checking that my generosity will be rewarded in this life, not in the next. Yes, the Member is right: the public elect people to take up ministerial office, and they should have the power to do that. It is remarkable that we have often had a situation in which unionist politician after unionist politician stands up in the Chamber and says, "It is awful what the British Government are doing to us. It is awful what the Tories did because of Brexit". No one agrees with that more than me. They now say, "It is awful what Keir Starmer is doing", and I agree with that most of the time too. There is pretty much agreement that it will also be awful if and when there is a Nigel Farage-led Government. Let us take power on this island. Let us talk about how we build power and responsibility, first in the North through greater fiscal devolution and then through a new Ireland. Even if you do not support a new Ireland, it is clear that a huge amount can be achieved through developing and expanding the all-island economy. I will be clear about what the ESRI report states. I do not dispute that there are wonderful points in it about the Northern Ireland economy. It is not talking down Northern Ireland, Mr Burrows, to point out that we are consistently one of the worst-performing parts of these islands in economic terms. We have actually somewhat outperformed the UK in economic performance. Since when? Since we have had the awful sea border. The protocol allowed us the dual market access that has enabled us to outperform consistently, probably for the first time, the rest of the UK. I will come on to the ESRI report. I have only a minute left. The report measures North versus South in GDP performance, productivity, economic performance, demographics, employment growth and living standards, and I am afraid that it is fair to say that the South is doing better than the North on pretty much all those measures. That is not ideology or fantasy; those are facts. I point out to the Members on the same side of the House as me that we would do better if we did not constantly harp on about how awful the South is when we are trying to persuade people of the argument that we are making for a new Ireland. I simply say this to colleagues: we have an enormous opportunity. One of the agendas of this century is to overcome some of the barriers on this island that, for a range of historical reasons, we put up in the previous century. Let us embrace that agenda, whether or not Members believe in completing the task —

— via constitutional change.

1,079 words. Text as published by the Northern Ireland Assembly.

Assessment

Not flagged

Jev’s structured answers met the documented threshold for “not flagged”.

  • Overall probability that the activity is being used to promote, exploit or escalate an identity-based controversy: 0.21 (flagging needs at least 0.70; at or below 0.30 is not flagged).
  • None of the five culture-war criteria was met (each was below 0.60).
  • Assessed as legitimate policy scrutiny (0.68).
  • No identity-based framing was identified (0.77).
  • Subject area: Constitutional question, Brexit, the Windsor Framework and sovereignty.
  • The overall probability was at or below the not-flagging threshold.

This is an AI-generated assessment of the text, made against published criteria. It is not a finding of fact about the MLA or their intentions. The Assembly record itself is the fact.

Jev’s structured answers

Probability that each statement is true of this text (0 = no, 1 = yes). A criterion counts as met at 0.60 or above.
QuestionProbabilityMet?
Identity framing0.18No
Sectarian or communal antagonism0.06No
Cultural grievance politics0.02No
Dog-whistle messaging0.20No
Controversy escalation0.15No
Legitimate policy scrutiny0.68Yes
Overall judgement0.21At or below not-flagging threshold
Context and attribution (stance)
OptionProbability
No identity-based framing (chosen)0.77
Reports or questions it0.03
Criticises or condemns it0.04
Adopts it0.16
Subject area (top five)
SubjectProbability
Constitutional question, Brexit, the Windsor Framework and sovereignty0.98
No identity-related subject0.01
Sectarianism, hate crime and community relations0.01
Flags, emblems, symbols, names and memorials0.00
Parades, bonfires and commemorations0.00

Assessed 21 October 2026 at 14:31 UTC by jev-1.13.0 (requested as typesafe/jev) under rubric 2026.10-r9, methodology 1.9.

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