Debate contribution: Economic Trends on the Island of Ireland

Debate contribution by Ms Diana Armstrong on 26 January 2026.

MLA

Ms Diana Armstrong

Party at the time

Ulster Unionist Party

Date

26 January 2026

Type

Debate contribution

Business

Private Members' Business

Heading

Economic Trends on the Island of Ireland

Assembly identifier

Official Report component 5340356

Read the official Assembly record

Text

I begin by saying something that should unite every Member in the Chamber: Northern Ireland's prosperity matters more than any party's constitutional aspirations. Economic policy must be grounded in evidence, not in wishful thinking. On that basis, the motion falls short. The Ulster Unionist Party will not get too exercised about the ESRI report as a panacea for change. It is the first in a series to examine economic developments and linkages between the two economies. At its introduction, its stated aim was to:

"help identify how we could cooperate more for mutual benefit, across a range of policy areas."

Sinn Féin's motion asks us to recognise all-island economic trends as if they point inevitably towards a particular political destination, but, when we look at the actual data, particularly the work of Ulster University economist Esmond Birnie, the picture is far more complex and far less convenient than the narrative being presented today. Let us start with the fundamentals. North/South trade has grown in recent years. That is a fact, and it is welcome, but Dr Birnie's analysis shows that the growth is driven largely by trade diversion and a rerouting of supply chains in response to post-Brexit frictions.

Yes.

Thank you for your intervention. Trade is growing east-west, but trade North/South has grown because of Brexit and because businesses had to make a decision to find their supply chains to that market east-west through a different diversion. Returning to the topic, it is not evidence of an emerging all-island economic model; it is evidence of businesses adapting to disruption. Even with that increase, the scale of North/South trade remains modest. Our trade with Great Britain is still several times larger. Our UK internal market remains the backbone of our economy, our supply chains and our consumer base. That is not a political slogan; it is an economic reality and a fact. We also need to be honest about the differences between the two jurisdictions on this island. Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland operate under fundamentally different economic systems, different tax regimes, different welfare models, different labour markets and very different levels of public expenditure. Esmond Birnie has been clear that those structural differences matter far more than short-term trade fluctuations. Let us not forget that the Republic's headline GDP figures are heavily distorted by multinational profit shifting. Building sweeping political arguments on those figures is not serious economic analysis. Yes, we should cooperate North and South where that benefits people — on health, infrastructure and tourism — but cooperation is not the same as convergence. It certainly is not the same as a constitutional inevitability. The data simply does not support the claims that are being made in the motion. I also want to address the proposal that is implicit in some contributions to the debate, which is that the answer to every economic challenge is to devolve more fiscal powers to the Finance Minister. Let me be clear: the Ulster Unionist Party supports responsible devolution, but responsibility requires realism. Northern Ireland already struggles to manage the fiscal levers that we have. We face structural pressures in health, education and infrastructure. We rely on significant financial support from the UK Treasury: support that allows us to maintain public services at a level that would be extremely difficult to replicate under any alternative arrangement. Before anyone rushes to demand new tax-raising and borrowing powers, we need to demonstrate that we can use our existing powers effectively, transparently and sustainably. Devolving further fiscal powers without the necessary capacity, safeguards or economic base would not be bold; it would be reckless. Let us be honest: some of the calls for additional fiscal powers are not about improving public services; they are about creating the optics of divergence from the rest of the United Kingdom. That is not a responsible basis for economic policy. Northern Ireland's economic future will be secured not by constitutional theatrics but by focusing on productivity, skills, investment and stability. We should strengthen our place in the United Kingdom internal market, deepen practical cooperation with our neighbours and base our decisions on rigorous analysis and not on selective reading of trade statistics. For those reasons, while we welcome the opportunity to debate economic trends on this island, the Ulster Unionist Party cannot support a motion that misinterprets the evidence, overstates the significance of short-term trade shifts and uses economic language in order to advance a constitutional agenda. I urge Members to reject the motion and to commit instead to having an economic strategy that is grounded in realism, partnership and the best interests of all the people of Northern Ireland.

773 words. Text as published by the Northern Ireland Assembly.

Assessment

Not flagged

Jev’s structured answers

Assessed 21 October 2026 at 14:23 UTC by jev-1.13.0 (requested as typesafe/jev) under rubric 2026.10-r9, methodology 1.9.

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