Member's statement: Irish Territorial Waters
Member's statement by Dr Steve Aiken OBE on .
- MLA
- Dr Steve Aiken OBE
- Party at the time
- Ulster Unionist Party
- Date
- 9 September 2025
- Type
- Member's statement
- Business
- Members' Statements
- Heading
- Irish Territorial Waters
- Assembly identifier
- Official Report component 5085731
Read the official Assembly record
Text
The stopping of the MV Matthew in Irish territorial waters in 2023 by the LÉ William Butler Yeats, supported by the Irish Army Ranger Wing and aircraft from the Irish Air Corps, is to be commended. The seizure of 2·2 tons of cocaine was a significant drugs haul, but, judging from the changes in illicit drug prices across Europe, it regrettably had little or no impact on that invidious trade. The real question is this: why did the cartel think that smuggling cocaine and other drugs through Ireland was such a low-risk activity? As is reported in the open, there are around a hundred suspect vessels on the high seas of the Atlantic or adjoining seas. Grey shipping is much more prevalent, however. It is used by everyone from rogue states to criminal gangs for the transmission of arms, waste and drugs, to smuggle people and to damage or cut fibre-optic cables and gas lines. Much of that grey fleet is routed through Irish waters and airspace. That is because the 880,000 square kilometres are under no surveillance. They are covered by only one offshore patrol vessel that has no gun and one maritime patrol aircraft with no anti-surface or anti-submarine capability at all. They are ungoverned spaces subject in reality to no jurisdiction, despite Irish claims. If a country cannot guarantee security over those regions, it cannot justifiably claim sovereignty. It is a significant matter for us in the Northern Ireland Assembly because there is little control by the Irish authorities, and Northern Ireland has become a path through our open border into Europe. While the EU worries incessantly about sausages contaminating the European single market, there is nothing being done to deal with the influx of illegal drugs and illegal trade through our borders. That is because Ireland freeloads on defence and security, spending an abysmal 0·3% of its GDP on its armed forces. It is also noteworthy that the rest of the countries in the EU, most of which are members of NATO, are heading towards spending 5% of their GDP on defence. If that process continues, Ireland's role as the port of choice for every narco-terrorist, every rogue state and every other terrorist will grow significantly. At least some Members of the Irish Oireachtas get it. We have a, thankfully, outgoing Irish president who lambasts the EU, the UK and NATO for their higher defence expenditure, while the country that he represents goes cap in hand for airspace and maritime support from those very nations in order to stop the use of Ireland's waters by criminals and others. There must be a better way, and it is about time that Ireland grew up and joined NATO.
450 words. Text as published by the Northern Ireland Assembly.
Assessment
Jev’s structured answers met the documented threshold for “not flagged”.
- Overall probability that the activity is being used to promote, exploit or escalate an identity-based controversy: 0.27 (flagging needs at least 0.70; at or below 0.30 is not flagged).
- None of the five culture-war criteria was met (each was below 0.60).
- Assessed as legitimate policy scrutiny (0.81).
- No identity-based framing was identified (0.86).
- Subject area: Constitutional question, Brexit, the Windsor Framework and sovereignty.
- The overall probability was at or below the not-flagging threshold.
This is an AI-generated assessment of the text, made against published criteria. It is not a finding of fact about the MLA or their intentions. The Assembly record itself is the fact.
Jev’s structured answers
| Question | Probability | Met? |
|---|---|---|
| Identity framing | 0.12 | No |
| Sectarian or communal antagonism | 0.19 | No |
| Cultural grievance politics | 0.02 | No |
| Dog-whistle messaging | 0.39 | No |
| Controversy escalation | 0.17 | No |
| Legitimate policy scrutiny | 0.81 | Yes |
| Overall judgement | 0.27 | At or below not-flagging threshold |
| Option | Probability |
|---|---|
| No identity-based framing (chosen) | 0.86 |
| Reports or questions it | 0.00 |
| Criticises or condemns it | 0.00 |
| Adopts it | 0.14 |
| Subject | Probability |
|---|---|
| Constitutional question, Brexit, the Windsor Framework and sovereignty | 0.68 |
| No identity-related subject | 0.31 |
| Another identity-related subject | 0.01 |
| Flags, emblems, symbols, names and memorials | 0.00 |
| Parades, bonfires and commemorations | 0.00 |
Assessed 21 October 2026 at 12:56 UTC by jev-1.13.0 (requested as typesafe/jev) under rubric 2026.10-r9, methodology 1.9.
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