Debate contribution: Budget 2025-26

Debate contribution by Dr Steve Aiken OBE on 19 May 2025.

MLA

Dr Steve Aiken OBE

Party at the time

Ulster Unionist Party

Date

19 May 2025

Type

Debate contribution

Business

Executive Committee Business

Heading

Budget 2025-26

Assembly identifier

Official Report component 4968694

Read the official Assembly record

Text

Much has been debated in the Chamber today and on previous occasions about the various Budget Bills. Although the debate on the 2025-26 Budget may appear to be rather technical and complex, the key fact to note is that it is part of the mechanism for formally agreeing £19·44 billion of the total UK Government expenditure of £35 billion in Northern Ireland. That is around £18,400 per head of population in this part of our nation. As the Minister has already stated, the Northern Ireland Executive published their draft Budget in December 2024. They conducted a consultation, and, as part of the draft Budget process, Departments assessed their draft budget positions in line with their departmental equality scheme arrangements. It was noteworthy that in this, the first proper Budget cycle post the restoration of the Assembly, many of the commitments that were made by the parties at Hillsborough Castle to prioritise health were pointedly ignored in the first draft Budget that was then published. That and the bizarre, to say the least, accounting measure of reporting the Department of Health budget from its opening rather than closing position was one of the many reasons that our party was not able to support the Budget process at that stage. I am delighted to say that the new Minister has reverted to normal, good financial management practices — well done, Minister — for this year's Budget, noting properly that the 2025-26 Health budget position has been baselined against the 2024-25 closing position. While we await the implications of the forthcoming comprehensive spending review from Whitehall, it is clear that, since last autumn, much has changed on the macroeconomic level, with global uncertainty increasing. What is now becoming abundantly clear is that pressures on our Budget allocation are not going to decrease. Our party has called regularly for a prosperity agenda that is linked to a clear growth strategy at the heart of government: an agenda that must tackle the high rate of economic inactivity at 27%, which stubbornly persists and is growing, even as levels of unemployment are at historical lows. Building a pathway to prosperity with the brakes that have been imposed by the Chancellor's rise in employers' National Insurance contributions will require agility and creative thinking. We know from this Budget that the Finance Minister is fully aware of departmental pressures. He and his Department have been fully informed by the work of the Fiscal Council, even though it is not yet on a statutory footing, and the Fiscal Commission, so they know that the deficit between what we have and what we need is significant. That figure in broad terms, adjusted for inflation, has remained steady at around £0·5 billion per annum over the past decade. We know, because of the great work of the Fiscal Commission and the Fiscal Council, that Northern Ireland was not being provided for appropriately on a needs basis. The fact that even the Treasury has recognised that since the talks at Hillsborough means that it has quite easily factored in a rise to 124%. That is an uplift that is only beginning to bring us into line with where we should be. We understand that Professor Holtham's review is nearly ready to be published. Hopefully, he will recognise that our need is probably closer to 126% or 128%. Even if that is supported by Treasury, it will probably still fall short of what we need.

Yes, certainly.

I agree; it should be published.

It is important for us to be able to see it, and I am sure that the Minister will refer to that. Thank you very much indeed, Matthew, for the intervention and the extra minute. It is much appreciated. I talked earlier about efficiencies and reform. As MLAs, we must critically examine how we spend our public moneys. There are several red flags that we should be highlighting, each of which is having a detrimental impact on this year's Budget. The first one is how Departments are reporting their monthly out-turns against Budget allocations and pressures. Looking at the flow of expenditure in the Department for the Economy, for instance, especially the monthly variances with transfers, should have raised considerable cause for concern. It is no surprise that its accounts were not only qualified but disclaimed. In the private sector or any properly run not-for-profit organisations, heads would have rolled. Regrettably, that was not the case in that Department. The fact that our Departments cannot manage public procurement should be a shock and a wake-up call that leads to greater scrutiny and accountability. While Ministers are ultimately responsible, sometimes, as we have seen over the past year, the politicians are the last to know about massive overspends in capital projects. It is clear that the culture of miscommunication, to put it mildly, in our Senior Civil Service, which was identified in the RHI and COVID inquiries, remains. The Audit Office reports, with depressing regularity, on our shortcomings in public procurements for buildings, IT systems, roads, and much else. Minister, we will be hard-pressed to ask the Treasury for more resources when, quite frankly, the levels of ineptitude in our public finances remain readily apparent. The next election will soon be upon us, and there seems to be a reluctance to address the issue of revenue raising. We note that the Economy Minister is tentatively kite-flying discussions on tuition fees, particularly as our higher education sector is falling further behind the leading universities in the rest of our country, with cutbacks in staff numbers and courses, while, at the same time, pushing hard for expansion in Londonderry. The mismatch between ambition and delivery is worryingly large. Coupled with Ulster University's appalling record in capital build project management, we must have real oversight over how the expansion of the Magee campus is being procured and managed. I wish the Finance Minister well in his endeavours with the Treasury. However, Minister, I am afraid that continuing to make the austerity argument whilst our public finance stewardship has been shown to be questionable presents more than just reputational challenges. In-year pressures have been mounting, not just for Health but for Justice too. The funding for Justice does not meet the needs of the PSNI, our Prison Service or the justice system at all. We must commend the Chief Constable for putting his service first. One can only imagine the frustration that such an experienced policeman must have felt at being chastised by a permanent secretary who seems to be more interested in process than in delivering for the people of Northern Ireland. Another area of immediate concern that is always being reported but about which there seems to be little urgency is Northern Ireland Water. While forensic accountants have been brought in to examine 1% of its budget, the lack of investment in our waste water infrastructure is holding back everything in Northern Ireland. It is a real drag on the future of our economy. Our agriculture sector is known for its large contribution to the economy and support of the countryside. The challenges for farming are multiplying. There is a need to replace the farm payments system with some form of ring-fenced funding that can be delivered with certainty. Again, that will be problematic. Health, which was given prominence in the Programme for Government, now needs, as agreed by all parties, to receive the funding that is necessary to allow us to do the difficult task of transformation whilst maintaining and improving existing services. While we welcome the belated recognition that tackling our appalling waiting lists needs to be an Executive-wide priority, the decision to allocate £165 million of existing funding to that will almost certainly require an Executive-wide response to allow the Department to come to a break-even budget position. We took the Health portfolio because nobody else wanted it and we believe in delivering for all the people in Northern Ireland.

In much the same way as the Executive have been constantly chasing their shortfall of half a billion pounds, Health has been constantly trying to catch up with the cuts imposed by the Health Minister, Michael McGimpsey, in 2007, as the need for the health service has grown.

I will conclude my remarks there. There is a lot to do, if we are to get the Budget across the line. We need to be extraordinarily careful if we are to be able to go to the Treasury again to ask for more money.

1,413 words. Text as published by the Northern Ireland Assembly.

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