Debate contribution: Democratic Consent Resolution
Debate contribution by Mr Philip McGuigan on .
- MLA
- Mr Philip McGuigan
- Party at the time
- Sinn Féin
- Date
- 10 December 2024
- Type
- Debate contribution
- Business
- Private Members' Business
- Heading
- Democratic Consent Resolution
- Assembly identifier
- Official Report component 4715870
Read the official Assembly record
Text
I beg to move
Go raibh maith agat, a Cheann Comhairle.
The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), in a report analysing the impact of Brexit, concluded that the post-Brexit relationship between Britain and the EU:
"will reduce long-run productivity by 4 per cent relative to remaining in the EU."
It stated:
"Both exports and imports will be around 15 per cent lower in the long run than if"
Britain
"had remained in the EU."
It concluded:
"New trade deals with non-EU countries will not have a material impact, and any effect will be gradual".
Official British Government statistics produced by HMRC concluded that, in the 12 months ending June 2024, compared with the previous 12 months, England, Scotland and Wales each experienced a decrease in the value of their exports. Here in the North, that value increased, with HMRC stating that trade from the North is growing, suggesting that the Windsor framework is working for our domestic exporters. I do not intend to rehash the debate about Brexit, but it is important to set today's vital debate and vote in context. In 2016, the vast majority of citizens in the North voted to remain in the EU. They did so in the knowledge that, politically and economically, it is in our best interests. Those who say today that they do not consent to the protocol seem to forget the fact that the North never consented to Brexit in the first place. As I said in a previous debate, there are those who, prior to the Brexit referendum and after it, appear intent on pursuing a strategy of political self-sabotage on a grand scale regardless of the implications for peace on this island or the prosperity of businesses, communities and citizens in the North. It was clear that Brexit, whether in Britain or Ireland, was never going to be positive. That is a fact that, hopefully, even its initial proponents across the Chamber can, at least in private, now recognise. Thankfully, for those of us who live in the North of Ireland, our voice was heard and listened to during the negotiations between the EU and the British Government. Sinn Féin continues to give people in the North a voice in the EU through our two MEPs, Lynn Boylan and Kathleen Funchion. In previous negotiations, the terms and conditions of the Good Friday Agreement were front and centre. Thankfully, the EU was not going to allow peace in Ireland to be collateral damage of English or British nationalism. The protocol and further agreements offer us, particularly our businesses, protections from Brexit's worst excesses, as they allow for dual market access to the EU and British markets. The objectives of the agreement are listed in articles 1 and 3 of the protocol/Windsor framework, which forms an integral part of the UK's EU withdrawal agreement, and it states that its purpose is:
"to address the unique circumstances on the island of Ireland, to maintain the necessary conditions for continued North-South cooperation, to avoid a hard border and to protect the 1998"
Good Friday
"Agreement in all its dimensions."
Those are the hard-fought and hard-won protections that absolutely need to continue and that we will vote for today. They are protections that are necessary and which offer certainty and stability for our businesses. The certainty and stability that our businesses want to be clear will continue after today's vote. They are protections that have contributed to trade increasing across this island by 125% between 2018 and 2023, growing from €4·5 billion in 2018 to €10·2 billion in 2023, according to the Central Statistics Office in Ireland, which also states that trade from the South to the North increased by 104% to €5 billion in 2023. Trade from North to South increased by 150% to €5·2 billion in 2023, up from €2·1 billion in 2018. This trade between North and South in 2024 continues to be dominated by exports and imports of food, live animals, chemicals and related products, and it continues to grow in value and importance. Are there issues? Of course there are. This is not perfect. However, the protocol at least mitigates the worst excesses of Brexit. As I said earlier, Brexit could not be anything other than negative and was always going to cause problems. We have managed to protect ourselves from the worst impact, but there have been impacts. Community and voluntary groups, businesses, sporting organisations and rural communities have lost access to millions in EU funding. Our young people are losing out on the full benefits of the ERASMUS scheme. The electronic travel authorisation (ETA) that has been imposed by the British Government will undoubtedly disrupt and damage the number of visitors travelling northwards and impact on our tourism and hospitality sectors. There are still outstanding areas of concern for some sectors and small businesses here. The Labour Government at Westminster have stated that they are determined to reset the relationship with the EU. If that transpires, it will be a welcome development for us in the North too. I want to see progress made on the issue of veterinary medicines and the need for a sanitary and phytosanitary agreement between Britain and the EU. Those are issues that can and should be resolved through agreement, and I hope that that happens sooner rather than later. In the short term, the certainty and stability in the relationship with the EU that the protocol and Windsor framework offer are vital and must be endorsed by the majority in the Chamber today. As I said, I would welcome relationships between the EU and the new British Government becoming closer, and, should that transpire, it could and should bring with it positive outcomes for the North in the medium term. Today's vote and the continuation of the protocol protections are vital. Ultimately, though, I believe that the majority of people in the North want, as they indicated in 2016, to be part of the European Union. So, through necessary constitutional change on this island and the building of a new Ireland — a noble and worthy positive outcome on its own — we the citizens in the North can rejoin and access benefits from full EU membership, something that I want to see and something that will be better for all the people of this island.
1,054 words. Text as published by the Northern Ireland Assembly.
Assessment
Jev’s structured answers met the documented threshold for “not flagged”.
- Overall probability that the activity is being used to promote, exploit or escalate an identity-based controversy: 0.20 (flagging needs at least 0.70; at or below 0.30 is not flagged).
- None of the five culture-war criteria was met (each was below 0.60).
- Assessed as legitimate policy scrutiny (0.78).
- No identity-based framing was identified (0.52).
- Subject area: Constitutional question, Brexit, the Windsor Framework and sovereignty.
- The overall probability was at or below the not-flagging threshold.
This is an AI-generated assessment of the text, made against published criteria. It is not a finding of fact about the MLA or their intentions. The Assembly record itself is the fact.
Jev’s structured answers
| Question | Probability | Met? |
|---|---|---|
| Identity framing | 0.20 | No |
| Sectarian or communal antagonism | 0.16 | No |
| Cultural grievance politics | 0.02 | No |
| Dog-whistle messaging | 0.34 | No |
| Controversy escalation | 0.08 | No |
| Legitimate policy scrutiny | 0.78 | Yes |
| Overall judgement | 0.20 | At or below not-flagging threshold |
| Option | Probability |
|---|---|
| No identity-based framing (chosen) | 0.52 |
| Reports or questions it | 0.01 |
| Criticises or condemns it | 0.03 |
| Adopts it | 0.44 |
| Subject | Probability |
|---|---|
| Constitutional question, Brexit, the Windsor Framework and sovereignty | 0.98 |
| No identity-related subject | 0.01 |
| Irish language, Ulster-Scots and language policy | 0.01 |
| Flags, emblems, symbols, names and memorials | 0.00 |
| Parades, bonfires and commemorations | 0.00 |
Assessed 21 October 2026 at 11:45 UTC by jev-1.13.0 (requested as typesafe/jev) under rubric 2026.10-r9, methodology 1.9.
Disagree with this assessment?
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