Debate contribution: The draft Climate Change (Carbon Budgets 2023-2037) Regulations (Northern Ireland) 2024

Debate contribution by Mr Andrew Muir on 10 December 2024.

MLA

Mr Andrew Muir

Party at the time

Alliance Party

Date

10 December 2024

Type

Debate contribution (made as a minister)

Business

Executive Committee Business

Heading

The draft Climate Change (Carbon Budgets 2023-2037) Regulations (Northern Ireland) 2024

Assembly identifier

Official Report component 4715559

Read the official Assembly record

Text

I beg to move

I am grateful for the opportunity to move the motion. Madam Principal Deputy Speaker, I thank you for agreeing that the debate should be held. It will cover the detail of the draft Climate Change (Carbon Budgets 2023-2037) Regulations (Northern Ireland) 2024 and the draft Climate Change (2040 Emissions Target) Regulations (Northern Ireland) 2024. I seek the Assembly's approval for the two statutory rules. First, it is important to set out that the regulations are being introduced to deliver on the statutory requirements that the Climate Change Act (Northern Ireland) 2022 placed on my Department. As you know, the Act sets a legal target for Northern Ireland to reach net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, which is in keeping with similar net zero targets at UK and EU level and those that have been legislated for in Scotland, Wales and Ireland. Section 23 of the Act requires my Department to make regulations to set carbon budgets. A carbon budget sets a limit on the maximum amount of greenhouse gas emissions that are permitted within a five-year period. Carbon budgets are a key mechanism for reducing our greenhouse gas emissions to put Northern Ireland on track to meet our 2030, 2040 and 2050 statutory targets in a planned and gradual way. The first three carbon budget periods are 2023-2027, 2028-2032 and 2033-2037. The carbon budget regulations should have been set by the Assembly in December of last year. We have a legal duty to set carbon budgets and interim targets, and that has been the case since 2022. The legal deadline for making the regulations has been significantly passed. My Department is in breach of the law and is already facing legal challenges. It is, therefore, vital that we take action now to put the legislation in place. Wasting our limited resources on defending a missed deadline serves no one's interests. As required by the Act, advice was sought from the UK Climate Change Committee (CCC). The CCC published its advice in a report entitled 'The path to a Net Zero Northern Ireland' in March 2023. The SRs that I have laid in the Assembly, which are being debated today, are in line with the CCC's recommendations. In summary, the carbon budget regulations will set the first carbon budget at an average annual reduction of 33%. The second carbon budget will be set at an average annual reduction of 48%, and the third carbon budget will be set at an average annual reduction of 62%. The 2040 emissions target regulations will set an emissions reduction target of 77% against the baseline. I turn to the 2030 target. The CCC recommended that an emissions reduction target for 2030 should remain at a reduction of at least 48% against the baseline. That is the current target in the Act, and, in line with the CCC's advice, I do not propose to amend it. In accordance with the requirements of the Act, I laid a written ministerial statement yesterday, which set out my reasons for retaining that target. Between June and October last year, my Department ran a lengthy, 16-week public consultation on the emissions reduction targets and the first three carbon budgets. The consultation received 235 written responses. Over 700 people attended the 21 consultation events, including three specifically aimed at young people. In the responses, there was consistently over 70%, and up to 78%, support for setting the targets and carbon budgets in line with the recommendations provided by the CCC. At the events, the consensus was similar to the results of the consultation, with a majority saying that we should trust the science and follow the advice provided by the CCC. We need to set our targets and carbon budgets to maintain pace with other nations. It is important to be clear that every one of our neighbouring nations on these islands has targets that are not only equal to but, in many cases, more ambitious than what I propose through this legislation. We see a strengthening of the ambition from other Governments and an increase in the targets. Just last month, the UK Prime Minister announced an 81% emissions reduction target by 2035 for the whole of the UK. My counterparts in Wales have a 2050 net zero target that is similar to ours, but, this year, they put in place a pathway to decarbonise their public sector by 2030. We all know that Scotland is changing its 2030 target, but it is important to provide the context that the Scottish 2030 target matches my proposal for Northern Ireland for 2040. Scotland is moving to a carbon budget approach, and I am proposing the same approach today. The Scottish Government have also been clear that they are still working towards their net zero target for 2045, ahead of the rest of the UK. Members, there is no rolling back from other countries. Ireland — a country that faces the same challenges as us on decarbonisation of the agriculture sector and the need for greater forestation and peatland restoration — has a 2030 target to reduce emissions by 51%: a higher target than we have. Over 139 countries worldwide are working towards a net zero target. That is over 90% of global GDP. We need to set carbon budgets and send a clear message that we will do our part in the global transformation and Northern Ireland will not be left behind.

We run the risk of not even being at the starting line of the race to reduce emissions if we miss out on taking advantage of the economic, societal and environmental opportunities available through net zero action, and that is why today is crucial.

In the discussion about taking the necessary climate action, much of the focus has been on costs. Members will have seen the detailed regulatory impact assessments (RIAs) conducted on the SRs and will note that the CCC has advised that any estimated costs are not solely to the public purse. They would be delivered by investment from the private sector at a UK level and socialised across the UK. For our first carbon budget period, our estimates are showing a net benefit. It is when we consider more expensive technologies for the third carbon budget that costs increase, but, as ever, technology is improving. The costs are coming down all the time. There is no requirement for us to implement engineered removals. Different and more affordable pathways to reducing emissions are open to us. Fundamentally, it is the cost involved in doing nothing that will put most pressure on our public finances and the wider economy. We have recently seen across the UK and Europe the devastating consequences of climate change. It is vital that we work to improve infrastructure and connectivity and allow our economy to evolve at the same pace as those of our neighbours. The estimates also do not include all the benefits of climate action, which we term "carbon value". There are significant benefits for all the people here if we fully embrace the opportunities provided by green growth not only through welcome investment in green energy, employment opportunities and the benefits of decarbonisation but through increased energy security. It is also clear that strong climate and environmental credentials are essential if we are to attract inward investment, maximise economic opportunities and compete on an international scale while showcasing the best of Northern Ireland. We can address and improve our productivity problems, increase incomes and, perhaps most importantly, improve the health and well-being of our citizens, particularly the most vulnerable in our society. It is essential that we take every opportunity to provide clarity to investors and businesses here and internationally that we have a stable and long-term commitment to decarbonisation in order to ensure that, as a region, we do not miss out on this generational opportunity. In determining costs associated with delivering net zero, it is important to recognise that upfront costs represent investments in an improved society for future generations. We have not only a legal duty but a moral duty to do so. We have seen the tragedies in other parts of the world caused by climate change. Some people have lost their livelihood, while others have lost their life. I know that we play just a small part in that global challenge, but let us not be the place that waits for others to step up. Let us not be the people who sit back when we see others suffering. We in Northern Ireland are better than that. We need to listen to the young people here and in every other country who are calling on political leaders to take action and lead by example. Just as important, however, we cannot allow our economy to fall behind. Across the world, Governments are investing for net zero. They are innovating, building skill sets in the workforce and expanding infrastructure. We cannot allow ourselves to stay on dial-up while all our neighbours work off fibre-optic. As well as being the right thing to do, setting the targets and carbon budgets today is key to realising the many opportunities and benefits for all of society. All the national and international research shows that decarbonisation can bring substantial economic and social co-benefits, particularly for the natural environment and public health. Reducing emissions leads to improvements in people's lives as a result of improved water quality, cleaner air and better diets. The benefits obtained from increased physical activity through the use of active travel can have a positive impact on health and well-being outcomes for our citizens. Improving energy efficiency, as well as reducing carbon, reduces energy costs for hard-pressed families. Better housing also brings other health and well-being benefits, such as fewer respiratory problems and allergies. More active travel and the move to electric vehicles will reduce congestion and benefit the whole population's health by improving air quality and reducing pollution. Fine particulate matter from the burning of fossil fuels, such as coal or diesel, is among the most toxic types of air pollution, with the potential to cause asthma, cancer, heart disease and premature death. Look at the pressures on our Health budget. Ignore climate change and set aside our economy: many of the investments involved in order to meet our carbon budgets make sense on health impacts alone. Many of you will be concerned about the impacts of taking climate action. Many, including me, are concerned about the impacts of not taking climate action. I reassure you that, for both of the statutory rules, there has been a detailed regulatory impact assessment; a rural needs impact assessment; equality impact screening; and a children's rights impact assessment. The Act also requires my Department to complete a financial, social and economic impact assessment. Each of those assessments undertaken shows that there will be societal benefits from future policies that Departments develop and implement to reduce emissions. In addition, the Act requires all Northern Ireland Departments to have regard to the just transition principle when deciding on their emissions reduction proposals and policies. Before any policy or programme is implemented, just transition must be considered. The just transition principle in the Act seeks to ensure that the benefits of a greener economy are shared widely across all sectors. A just transition requires a whole-of-society approach to tackling climate change and its impacts, an approach that seeks to promote inclusion and to respect human rights whilst promoting development and the creation of decent work and quality jobs. There is a level of protection and scrutiny involved in the implementation of the carbon budgets and targets that has never been here before. As Minister with responsibility for agriculture, I know that the just transition is key. Many people in the farming community have felt under siege, not least from the actions of the Westminster Government over recent weeks. I will continue relentlessly to challenge those decisions by the Westminster Government. I hope that some will take solace from the unity that we have shown as an Assembly in standing together and showing support for them in the face of those decisions by the Chancellor. Our farming community should not fear the carbon budgets and the targets. The reality is that many farmers see at first hand the impact that climate change is having here already. They can see it in the increased severity and frequency of flooding; the increased number of wildfires; and the increased cost of supplies. They see how farming has become more and more expensive. I reassure the agriculture community that my Department understands those challenges, but I also recognise that we have to change to keep up with the transforming world and to protect our agricultural and rural communities. The just transition principle will be fundamental to ensuring fairness during the transition from a high-emission economy to a low-emission economy and to ensuring that support is provided where it is needed. It is important that I clarify for all Members that the carbon budgets and targets are set at a regional level. They do not specify what each sector has to achieve. How we choose to reach the targets is up to us. Some sectors are already overachieving, which will allow time for other policies to be developed with stakeholders, tested, assessed for impact and delivered. On the issue of clarity for business, we need to set targets and the accompanying carbon budgets now. It is important to create a clear signal to businesses and provide greater policy certainty to encourage much-needed investment that will create new opportunities for existing companies to expand and diversify into new markets; drive innovation; improve productivity; and create new, quality green jobs and economic resilience. Setting carbon budgets and an emissions reduction target for 2040 is an essential step towards mitigating climate change, protecting our well-being and fostering a thriving economy that works in harmony with our environment. I look forward to the debate and hope that Members will support the proposed legislation.

2,335 words. Text as published by the Northern Ireland Assembly.

Assessment

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Assessed 21 October 2026 at 11:45 UTC by jev-1.13.0 (requested as typesafe/jev) under rubric 2026.10-r9, methodology 1.9.

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