Debate contribution: Front-line Services: Employers’ National Insurance Increase
Debate contribution by Mr Timothy Gaston on .
- MLA
- Mr Timothy Gaston
- Party at the time
- Traditional Unionist Voice
- Date
- 13 January 2025
- Type
- Debate contribution
- Business
- Private Members' Business
- Heading
- Front-line Services: Employers’ National Insurance Increase
- Assembly identifier
- Official Report component 4738722
Read the official Assembly record
Text
Members, it is important to remember that National Insurance is only part of the tax burden to fall upon employers. It is shocking that the Labour Government have chosen to reduce the threshold to £5,000, meaning that the vast majority of people with a part-time job will end up with their employer now paying 15% National Insurance. That will result in question marks over the viability of many jobs. The hospitality sector in my constituency, which is a sector that already runs on relatively small margins and employs a lot of part-time people, will fall victim to a double whammy: the increase in the living wage, plus employers now having to pay National Insurance. Many businesses in North Antrim are small. They employ 10 people or fewer but have a vision to expand and grow. The changes will mean that many of them simply will not be able to afford to do so. As I understand it, the Government are offsetting the National Insurance rise in relation to the public sector. That said, following a question for written answer in the Commons, my party leader obtained information that suggests that the higher level of employment in the public sector in Northern Ireland, which is 26·8% as opposed to 17·3% across the UK, will not be recognised. Therefore, we face being short-changed in another issue that is developing in the budgetary pressures that bedevil this place. Importantly, I believe that the change will result in Northern Ireland once again being funded below the level of need. Since the UK Government adopted that definition, funding for Northern Ireland has fallen below the definition of need not once but twice in five years. I also note that there is no suggestion of the Government offsetting the cost of National Insurance in relation to agency staff, who, as Members will know, do a Trojan amount of work and without whom our health and social care service would simply collapse.
I thank the Member — I think — for his intervention. I would certainly rather that Northern Ireland were released from the shackles of the Northern Ireland protocol —.
What?
People would be poorer? No. It would allow our businesses to flourish and take advantage of Brexit. Northern Ireland did not get Brexit, but, once again, the Alliance Party is still in denial. I will finish my remarks by saying that the changes mean that the sector will struggle even more than it does currently. That is another reason why I support the motion. Agency workers in Northern Ireland are the backbone of our industry. If the Government do not stand over helping to offset the cost of National Insurance increases, rather than foisting the increases on agency workers and public services, I despair. I look to the Finance Minister to see what work she has done to date and what figures she will produce for Members this evening on the issue.
487 words. Text as published by the Northern Ireland Assembly.
Assessment
Jev’s structured answers met the documented threshold for “not flagged”.
- Overall probability that the activity is being used to promote, exploit or escalate an identity-based controversy: 0.12 (flagging needs at least 0.70; at or below 0.30 is not flagged).
- None of the five culture-war criteria was met (each was below 0.60).
- Assessed as legitimate policy scrutiny (0.91).
- No identity-based framing was identified (0.90).
- Subject area: Constitutional question, Brexit, the Windsor Framework and sovereignty.
- The overall probability was at or below the not-flagging threshold.
This is an AI-generated assessment of the text, made against published criteria. It is not a finding of fact about the MLA or their intentions. The Assembly record itself is the fact.
Jev’s structured answers
| Question | Probability | Met? |
|---|---|---|
| Identity framing | 0.07 | No |
| Sectarian or communal antagonism | 0.04 | No |
| Cultural grievance politics | 0.02 | No |
| Dog-whistle messaging | 0.15 | No |
| Controversy escalation | 0.11 | No |
| Legitimate policy scrutiny | 0.91 | Yes |
| Overall judgement | 0.12 | At or below not-flagging threshold |
| Option | Probability |
|---|---|
| No identity-based framing (chosen) | 0.90 |
| Reports or questions it | 0.01 |
| Criticises or condemns it | 0.00 |
| Adopts it | 0.09 |
| Subject | Probability |
|---|---|
| Constitutional question, Brexit, the Windsor Framework and sovereignty | 0.85 |
| No identity-related subject | 0.15 |
| Flags, emblems, symbols, names and memorials | 0.00 |
| Parades, bonfires and commemorations | 0.00 |
| Irish language, Ulster-Scots and language policy | 0.00 |
Assessed 21 October 2026 at 11:43 UTC by jev-1.13.0 (requested as typesafe/jev) under rubric 2026.10-r9, methodology 1.9.
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