Debate contribution: Excess Deaths
Debate contribution by Mr Mike Nesbitt on .
- MLA
- Mr Mike Nesbitt
- Party at the time
- Ulster Unionist Party
- Date
- 1 July 2024
- Type
- Debate contribution (made as a minister)
- Business
- Oral Answers to Questions
- Heading
- Excess Deaths
- Assembly identifier
- Official Report component 4499381
Read the official Assembly record
Text
I thank the Member for his question and acknowledge his long-standing interest in the area. The expression "excess deaths" is horribly clinical, but I suggest that it is a necessary definition. First, I assure Mr Frew that I do not want any partner, relative or friend of somebody who has passed away to wonder whether the implication of that person being an "excess death" is that the death should perhaps never have happened. I am very much focused on the issue of excess deaths. Of course, the issue is not unique to Northern Ireland and has been observed internationally. The underlying explanation is likely to be multifactorial and may include an increasing number of people with long-term conditions such as cardiovascular disease and diabetes. It could also be down to lifestyle changes in a population, access to services or the longer-term impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. I have discussed the issue with the Chief Scientific Adviser, Professor Ian Young. My Department has also commissioned the Public Health Agency to carry out work to investigate the potential causes. That work is ongoing.
181 words. Text as published by the Northern Ireland Assembly.
Assessment
Jev’s structured answers met the documented threshold for “not flagged”.
- Overall probability that the activity is being used to promote, exploit or escalate an identity-based controversy: 0.03 (flagging needs at least 0.70; at or below 0.30 is not flagged).
- None of the five culture-war criteria was met (each was below 0.60).
- Assessed as legitimate policy scrutiny (0.69).
- No identity-based framing was identified (1.00).
- The overall probability was at or below the not-flagging threshold.
This is an AI-generated assessment of the text, made against published criteria. It is not a finding of fact about the MLA or their intentions. The Assembly record itself is the fact.
Jev’s structured answers
| Question | Probability | Met? |
|---|---|---|
| Identity framing | 0.02 | No |
| Sectarian or communal antagonism | 0.02 | No |
| Cultural grievance politics | 0.01 | No |
| Dog-whistle messaging | 0.02 | No |
| Controversy escalation | 0.03 | No |
| Legitimate policy scrutiny | 0.69 | Yes |
| Overall judgement | 0.03 | At or below not-flagging threshold |
| Option | Probability |
|---|---|
| No identity-based framing (chosen) | 1.00 |
| Reports or questions it | 0.00 |
| Criticises or condemns it | 0.00 |
| Adopts it | 0.00 |
| Subject | Probability |
|---|---|
| No identity-related subject | 0.98 |
| Legacy of the Troubles, victims and paramilitarism | 0.01 |
| Disability (including neurodivergence and mental health), disabled people and disability or sickness benefits | 0.01 |
| Flags, emblems, symbols, names and memorials | 0.00 |
| Parades, bonfires and commemorations | 0.00 |
Assessed 21 October 2026 at 10:57 UTC by jev-1.13.0 (requested as typesafe/jev) under rubric 2026.10-r9, methodology 1.9.
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