Member's statement: Excess Deaths
Member's statement by Mr Paul Frew on .
- MLA
- Mr Paul Frew
- Party at the time
- Democratic Unionist Party
- Date
- 19 March 2024
- Type
- Member's statement
- Business
- Members' Statements
- Heading
- Excess Deaths
- Assembly identifier
- Official Report component 4278880
Read the official Assembly record
Text
I will talk about excess deaths. I will push out some figures, and I want the House to remember that, while we can all throw out figures and facts, they are real people: mums and dads, brothers and sisters, sons and daughters, and wives and husbands. We have already seen from the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA) figures this year that we have experienced 235 excess deaths in 2024 alone. Excess deaths are those that are above average. In the past year, from week 10 to week 10 ending 8 March 2024, we have had 569 excess deaths. More startling, however, are the figures from March 2022 to March 2023, ending in week 10. We experienced 1,024 excess deaths. Those are mums and dads, brothers and sisters. That is all in the context of us having experienced and lived through two high-death years relating to the pandemic, which pushed our averages for deaths up. At a time when we should be seeing excess deaths drop, we have seen them rise further, yet the Department of Health in Northern Ireland and the UK Government in Westminster refuse to investigate why so many people are dying excessively and why so many do so at their private home. Departments and Ministers want to ignore the fact that so many people are dying excessively now.
223 words. Text as published by the Northern Ireland Assembly.
Assessment
Jev’s structured answers met the documented threshold for “not flagged”.
- Overall probability that the activity is being used to promote, exploit or escalate an identity-based controversy: 0.05 (flagging needs at least 0.70; at or below 0.30 is not flagged).
- None of the five culture-war criteria was met (each was below 0.60).
- Assessed as legitimate policy scrutiny (0.88).
- No identity-based framing was identified (1.00).
- The overall probability was at or below the not-flagging threshold.
This is an AI-generated assessment of the text, made against published criteria. It is not a finding of fact about the MLA or their intentions. The Assembly record itself is the fact.
Jev’s structured answers
| Question | Probability | Met? |
|---|---|---|
| Identity framing | 0.03 | No |
| Sectarian or communal antagonism | 0.03 | No |
| Cultural grievance politics | 0.01 | No |
| Dog-whistle messaging | 0.03 | No |
| Controversy escalation | 0.03 | No |
| Legitimate policy scrutiny | 0.88 | Yes |
| Overall judgement | 0.05 | At or below not-flagging threshold |
| Option | Probability |
|---|---|
| No identity-based framing (chosen) | 1.00 |
| Reports or questions it | 0.00 |
| Criticises or condemns it | 0.00 |
| Adopts it | 0.00 |
| Subject | Probability |
|---|---|
| No identity-related subject | 0.88 |
| Sexism, misogyny, ageism and other equality groups | 0.09 |
| Gender, sexuality, abortion and related social issues | 0.03 |
| Flags, emblems, symbols, names and memorials | 0.00 |
| Parades, bonfires and commemorations | 0.00 |
Assessed 21 October 2026 at 09:45 UTC by jev-1.13.0 (requested as typesafe/jev) under rubric 2026.10-r9, methodology 1.9.
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