Debate contribution: Budget Bill: Second Stage

Debate contribution by Dr Steve Aiken OBE on 19 February 2024.

MLA: Dr Steve Aiken OBE
Party at the time: Ulster Unionist Party
Date: 19 February 2024
Type: Debate contribution
Business: Executive Committee Business
Heading: Budget Bill: Second Stage
Assembly identifier: Official Report component 4223492

Text

I welcome the Minister. Regrettably, I will probably have to slip out in 10 minutes or so to our all-party group (APG) meeting. Sadly, you will have to step down from the all-party group, but I thank you very much for your work for the APG on science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) and everything that you have done. I congratulate you on your new post. I am glad that we have somebody in the role who understands science, technology and maths. That will be particularly appropriate. That is probably as good as it will get, Minister, as you would imagine. As an ex-Chairperson of the Finance Committee, I have looked at the process today, and I am nervous about what has happened, as, indeed, are many of us who are familiar with what has gone on in the past. I noted that you said in your remarks that there is a real concern about this because we are likely to run out of cash. The Committee had briefings from officials about concerns that the Education and Communities Ministries would run out of cash and the real problems that that would create. Last Wednesday, we were briefed by officials that overspend was somewhere in the region of £400 million and that they were having to reach out to take money from the contingency fund to help to pay for Civil Service pensions. There is obviously considerable concern in the Civil Service and Departments about our financial position. It should concern us all, though, that we have heard time and again that we are not in a position to compare the figures with the Supplementary Estimates. Normally, what would happen at this stage is that each of us would reach into the Supplementary Estimates and pull out figures to compare them with where we actually are and what we should be doing. It is obvious, Minister, that you are aware, because you have been told by other Ministers and Departments, where the pressures and pinch points are, but we are not aware of that information. We have not been made aware of that information in the Finance Committee, and, from what I have heard from Chairpersons of other Committees — I have heard from the Committees for Education, Infrastructure, Audit and others — they are not aware either. Minister, if we are to make this work effectively, which we all want to do, we need to be aware of the information. If you have that information, Committees should have it as well. We are not setting out to deliberately trip you up. Trust me: I am not. I know what it is like, and I have seen the parlous financial situation that we are in. However, we are not in a position to help you unless you give us the information that we need. Bear in mind that, during the last short period that we were here, we, particularly in the Finance Committee, looked at improved reporting procedures so that there would be greater transparency. I do not feel as though we are getting any transparency at all at the moment. If you were being honest with yourself, Minister, I do not think that you could say that you were getting the transparency that you need to make the decisions that are out there. We are being asked about a Vote on Account to 65%. We are being told that the reason that we need to do that is the difficulties that there are in forming the budgetary process. One thing that I would like the Minister to address in her remarks — I think that it has already been raised by the Leader of the Opposition and other Members on these Benches — is the state of the discussions with Treasury. What is the state of the discussions that, you said, you were going urgently to have with Treasury? We are being asked to approve a series of budgetary positions without knowing what the outcome is likely to be. We have not been told what the pressures are and where they lie. We have been told that there are considerable problems, but we have not been given detailed information. We have no Supplementary Estimates, even though, obviously, the Civil Service must have got the figures from somewhere. It is drawing money from the contingency fund, so it must know how much of those moneys there are. It must have ideas of what the budgetary positions are. We do not have that information, yet we are asked to sign off on a cheque for £18 billion. I will say that again: £18 billion. We are asked to sign off on that to keep our vital public services going. For how long? Is it for three months, for four months, until the summer recess or until after it? Do we know? We have not been given that information. We have to have that if we are to effectively help, support and scrutinise. The people of Northern Ireland are, frankly, jaundiced — that is the politest word — about this place and what we do. One of the reasons for that, which we saw with RHI and all sorts of things, is that we have no real method of controlling our public moneys. Time and time again, we are caught out. I know that this might be a spotter sort of thing — the learned Mr Allister KC is not here — but one of the things that we brought out last time is that, when we look at the lines in the budgets and accounts that come before us, we, like a good set of auditors, should always check the small detail to see if it adds up. One of the things that we used to look at is what is called the "black box". Some of you will not be aware of what the black box is, but it is a method of accounting procedures. The figure should be no more than £1 million. That is the maximum that it is supposed to be, as laid out by the Audit Office. Last time we had a look at the black box, it was £1 billion, which was, obviously, completely off the scale. This time, it is £28 million. Therefore, by a factor of 28, we are out on even the basics. The Minister's officials are here: maybe they could beaver away and come up with some of the answers on that, because, frankly, it is not acceptable. People who want to see Northern Ireland run well need to understand that the accounting processes are being done correctly. Here is the situation. We do not know what the outcomes, the out-turns or the pressures are. All we are being told is that the whole thing will come collapsing down around us. We have been given none of that information. Minister, I trust you; I do. We should trust the Finance Minister with the finances to deal with the situation. However, I need to be assured that you are getting the right information. Many of the finance spokespeople present were in regular communication with the Department of Finance up to Christmas. The parties that were likely to be in the Executive and, indeed, the Opposition were invited to those meetings. There was a large degree of clarity about the positions and pressures. Indeed, it was probably sufficient for us to start making a judgement about the real issues that we would have to deal with when we got to the Programme for Government. All that stopped just before Christmas. We are now through the next quarter. I cannot, in all honesty, say that I have a handle on where our finances are. I cannot see where the moneys are coming in and coming out. I am told that we have real pressures. The Health Minister tells me that we have real pressures, and I believe him. We have real pressures on teachers' pay, on public service pay and all over the place. We do not have any figures. I look around at the Committee Chairpersons, and nobody is saying, "Steve, you are wrong", or, "Will you take an intervention? I know what is going on". You do not. Feel free, please. Not one of them is saying that.
We do not have that degree of information. If we are to do our job effectively, we have to understand that and do that.
Minister, I encourage you to be as open as you can or even to go the extra step. We should have the information that you have. If we are to continue to build trust and make sure that we have a Budget process and a Budget that is working, we need to know that. Our party will support the Budget, but we are doing that because I trust you when you tell me that we are going to fall off a cliff. I am doing that in good faith, because I do not know that. What I know, however, is that we have moved into unprecedented territory. When I say that we have a Vote on Account of 65%, that should scare the living daylights out of every MLA here, and it should scare the living daylights out of every Department. We are handing over a cheque for £18 billion, the details of which we do not know. That is not a great situation for us to be in, Minister. I hear your commitment. I would love to make sure that we will have the spring Supplementary Estimates. One of your officials told us today that we would have them by the end of March. I want to make sure that that happens, and I would like to hear from you a commitment that that will happen. If it does not happen — I have my concerns about that — we need to have answers about what we will do about that. Frankly, this is untenable, and we cannot keep on going the way we are. I wish you all the best, Minister. I will be supportive of you: you know that I will be. I trust you, but you need to get on with it.

1,705 words. Text as published by the Northern Ireland Assembly.

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