Member's statement: United Ireland: Polling

Member's statement by Mr Peter Martin on 5 October 2026.

MLA: Mr Peter Martin
Party at the time: Democratic Unionist Party
Date: 5 October 2026
Type: Member's statement
Business: Members' Statements
Heading: United Ireland: Polling
Assembly identifier: Official Report component 5773945

Text

Thank you, Mr Speaker. I will do my best. In an 'Irish Independent' poll over the weekend, people in the South were asked what the most important issues were to them. Do you know, Mr Speaker, what percentage of voters in the South consider a united Ireland or a new Ireland to be a priority? I am sure that the Members opposite will be interested in this. Is it 25% or 15%? It is less than 1%; in fact, it was a number so small that it did not register in the polling data. In April 2023, Sinn Féin was polling at 37% in the South: that number has halved. It campaigned to open borders and have unrestricted immigration, and voters in the South have reacted accordingly. As my colleague has just said, the new Ireland project is dead in the water. Up in Northern Ireland, we know that the self-styled "First Minister for all" is a First Minister for some. She is happy to stand with dissident
— the Members opposite are laughing. She is happy to stand with dissident republicans on the Garvaghy Road to stop 35 Orangemen walking down it at 8.00 am. She is happy to stand on the Garvaghy Road while songs like, 'My Old Man's a Provo' are sung by the crowd. What do those from a unionist or a loyalist tradition — loyalists and unionists who are angry and rightly so — do in that context? They never resort to violence; that is the absolute key. However, there is something that unionists and loyalists who have been annoyed by what we have seen on our streets can do: they can vote. Anyone watching or anyone who has got angry or frustrated at the scenes that we have seen over the last week can call into any of our offices and we will help them to get registered to vote. They can vote and then transfer to other unionist parties along the way —
— maximising unionist representation. We will hold Sinn Féin to account. Do not get angry at the voices you hear on the —
— radio. Go and do something about it.

361 words. Text as published by the Northern Ireland Assembly.

Assessment

Qualifying Sectarianism, hate crime and community relations

Jev’s structured answers met every documented threshold for a qualifying culture-war activity.

Overall probability that the activity is being used to promote, exploit or escalate an identity-based controversy: 0.79 (qualifying needs at least 0.70; at or below 0.30 is not qualifying).
Criteria met: Identity framing (0.94).
The text adopts the identity-based framing in its own voice (0.64).
Subject area: Sectarianism, hate crime and community relations.
All qualifying thresholds were met.

This is an AI-generated assessment of the text, made against published criteria. It is not a finding of fact about the MLA or their intentions. The Assembly record itself is the fact.

Jev’s structured answers

Probability that each statement is true of this text (0 = no, 1 = yes). A criterion counts as met at 0.60 or above.
Question	Probability	Met?
Identity framing	0.94	Yes
Sectarian or communal antagonism	0.30	No
Cultural grievance politics	0.48	No
Dog-whistle messaging	0.59	No
Controversy escalation	0.45	No
Legitimate policy scrutiny	0.10	No
Overall judgement	0.79	Above qualifying threshold

Context and attribution (stance)
Option	Probability
No identity-based framing	0.03
Reports or questions it	0.01
Criticises or condemns it	0.32
Adopts it (chosen)	0.64

Subject area (top five)
Subject	Probability
Sectarianism, hate crime and community relations	0.78
Constitutional question, Brexit, the Windsor Framework and sovereignty	0.15
Legacy of the Troubles, victims and paramilitarism	0.04
Parades, bonfires and commemorations	0.03
No identity-related subject	0.00

Assessed 21 October 2026 at 16:42 UTC by jev-1.13.0 (requested as typesafe/jev) under rubric 2026.10-r9, methodology 1.9.

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